Manor Racing into administration... again

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Oh, what fun: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38530855

Good morning to the fine folks at Liberty Media.  So there are these two tiny, but somewhat pressing, problems with the F1 business you just bought for a crazy sum of money: circuits which host sell-out races still lose money on the endeavour; and any team that finishes outside the top ten in successive years gets zero prize money, and promptly collapses into bankruptcy.

Time for a cunning plan?

Didn't I say this would happen when Nasr scored points? That Brazilian can do NOTHING right!

Also Nasr scored points. That shunts Manor out of the top 10  and away from a cool 30 million Euros.

Did Nasr just kill Manor? That money may have been vital for them.

Yup I did say that.

Search for a buyer continues: http://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433/10726908/manor-administrator-in-talks-with-interest-parties-as-rescue-bid-continues

Staff paid only until end of January so take that as the deadline to find new owners.

The deadline appears to be a week from now. If they start building the car by then, they will be able to get to Australia. Any later and they will probably miss the first race.

FIA rules let them miss up to three races, so not terminal if they couldn't make it to Oz... but obviously not ideal either.


God knows why, but someone out there is interested in buying the cash-sucking creature called Manor Racing: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/127754/offer-made-to-save-manor-for-2017

How lovely. I wouldn't mind keeping that team around.

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... and it's dead.  The self-styled 'pinnacle of motorsport' back down to a pathetic 20-car grid.

Manor's 2017 wind tunnel model: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/01/27/manor-employees-reveal-never-raced-2017-car/

It only had 20 when I started watching in 2003 as well. I view this as kind of the minimum.

They were still pre-qualifying when I started watching; haul an F1 team across the World and don't go racing....  That lunacy aside, in my mind twenty six cars is still the norm and anything less is an aberration - albeit one that has continued for many years!  Perhaps Liberty will alter payment structure in 2020 after the Concorde Agreement expires, I guess that might tempt new teams into the sport; but then a lack of sponsors down the grid & uncapped budgets are killing the finances of privately owned outfits... not certain the ten we have will all reach 2020. 

Force India is not all too likely to make it, are they? They keep asking for pre-payments. Haas did too, they were to be awarded some cash after racing for two years and they got that money already now after just one season because "Let's face it, we'll do the 2017 season".

Sauber's finances appear sound but they are very much clouded in secrecy and who knows how much money they actually have?

Williams are OK, especially now they sold Bottas to Mercedes. That should give them a comfortable buffer.

McLaren has said they need a title sponsor for 2018 or they won't be able to afford racing. That means this season will largely be devoted to finding their new partner.

Toro Rosso have been likely to be sold a couple times but nobody ever wants to buy them. As long as Red Bull remain faithful, I think Toro Rosso will too.

Ferrari, Renault, and Mercedes are (probably) going nowhere.

To sum it up:

Danger:
Force India
Haas

Risk:
McLaren

Uncertain:
Sauber

Likely:
Toro Rosso
Williams
Red Bull

Certain:
Mercedes
Ferrari
Renault

I'd stick Williams in the 'certain' category.  Seems to be run very much as a business, matching expenditure to revenue - figures show they have net cash - and relatively healthy in terms of sponsors - plus they have Lance Stroll's (dad's) cash coming in.  Likewise, McLaren should be fine: finding a title sponsor is easy enough according to Ron Dennis, it's just that they've been waiting for improved results to draw out a big name sponsor.  So either 2017 sees them impress on the track and a generous global co. steps in as title sponsor, or they continue to lag behind the top three and the new management (now without Ron D's ego) accepts a lesser business as partner and must then trim a few tens of millions off their annual spend.

Sauber is, as you say, something of a mystery - one wonders how much debt are they carrying.  No big sponsors and quite likely to be stuck at the back of the grid this season - how much support can Ericsson's backers provide?  Similar story for Haas only the backer in question is Haas... what level of losses is he willing to absorb?  And then there's Force India.... Phenomenal results given their budget and surely deserving of survival (and sponsorship!) - but instead they're begging F1 for cash up-front.  Any of those three could go, but equally they could chug on if sufficient pay-drivers can be sourced.

Well, it's clear that Sauber are still recruiting a lot of people and expanding their investment. Also the staff do get salary on time these days. There should be no debt, and apparently they are making enough money. As you say, with Banco do Brasil gone they lack a main sponsor. Is this the time for one of the mysterious investors to slap a big sticker on the car, or will Ericsson's "MODO Eyewear" end up all over the car? They are a rather small sponsor.

Then perhaps the question regarding Sauber should be what happens if Ericsson were to be offered a seat by another outfit: is Longbow committed to team or man? 

Ericsson was offered the Force India seat later occupied by Ocon, but Ericsson could not bring enough sponsorship with him. Longbow is therefore committed to team, although one would assume Ericsson's seat at Sauber is rather safe because of that commitment.

Then that must shunt Sauber into quite a safe position; shall we call them likely to be around in 2020.

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On the Haas side, some interesting notes from the NASCAR side of things. Stewart-Haas owns four cars, and it's fair to say that Stewart isn't the money side of the operation.

4 - Harvick. Fully sponsored by Busch, Jimmy John's, others
10 - Patrick. Partial sponsorship, but Nature's Bakery, her apparent primary sponsor, seems to now have dropped out only three weeks before the season.
14 - Bowyer. Only has sponsorship from Mobil 1, a team sponsor, for a few races. Rest are open.
41 - Busch. Has been sponsored by Haas for at least half the season since the team was added.

So if you add that up, Haas will be funding an F1 team and at least 2 entire NASCAR Cup teams. Plus a NASCAR Xfinity team (second division, like GP2).

Which got me wondering about the budget for his NASCAR teams... and up popped this article from 2015: http://autoweek.com/article/nascar-sprint-cup/gene-hass-says-f1-budget-similar-nascar

I don't think the rules allow Haas to buy the latest Ferrari components (loophole was closed if I recall), so that rather measly F1 budget will presumably head northwards as development work is brought in-house.  Still, another year and they'll be entitled to a share of F1's prize money, something like $50 - 60 million, which covers a good portion of their current annual spend - but before you know it they'll be spending $150 million a year.