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Junior Formula Racing

Started by Penfold, March 03, 2017, 05:37:08 AM

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Chrill

I'm back with my predictions for the future, now that we have a clearer picture of who is in F1 for 2021 and also who will be driving what junior series in 2021.

So, for example, the five most likely drivers to graduate from F2 to F1 are:

1. Theo Pourchaire (18 years, France, attached to Alfa Romeo)
2. Christian Lundgaard (20 years, Denmark, attached to Alpine)
3. Oscar Piastri (20 years, Australia, attached to Alpine)
4. Marcus Armstrong (21 years, New Zealand, attached to Ferrari)
5. Jüri Vips (21 years, Estonia, attached to Red Bull)

The least likely F2 drivers to find an F1 seat in the future?
1. Roberto Merhi (30 years, Spain, no attachment) (yes, the Merhi who raced in F1 years ago)
2. Alessio Deledda (27 years, Italy, no attachment)
3. Bent Viscaal (22 years, Netherlands, no attachment)

The most likely outside of F2?
1. Alexander Albon, DTM (25 years, Thailand, obviously Red Bull)
2. Jak Crawford, Formula 3 (16 years, USA, attached to Red Bull)
3. Frederik Vesti, Formula 3 (19 years, Denmark, attached to Mercedes)

These Danish guys are all coming through right now. Magnussen started something, it seems!

I'll keep developing this document, then share a 2022 and a 2023 grid in the coming days.
"It is becoming apparent Ericsson is not, after all, joining Ferrari Ganassi for 2019 2020."
- Chrill, 28 Sep 2018 8 Oct 2019

Chrill

Releasing some more dirty secrets from my lovely junior formula document. This does not include all the IndyCar drivers from 2020 and 2021, but many. Would you argue that this is, roughly, how likely any of these are to race in F1 in the future? The scale goes 1-5:

5: Almost certainly heading for F1
4: Probably
3: Possibly
2: Probably not
1: Almost certainly not


5:
None in IndyCar

4:
None in IndyCar

3:
Colton Herta
Patricio O'Ward
Pietro Fittipaldi

2:
Rinus VeeKay
Santino Ferrucci
Álex Palou
Oliver Askew
Jack Harvey
Alexander Rossi
Felix Rosenqvist
Josef Newgarden
Marcus Ericsson
Romain Grosjean

1:
Graham Rahal
James Hinchcliffe
Simon Pagenaud
Will Power
Scott Dixon
Ryan Hunter-Reay
Takuma Sato
"It is becoming apparent Ericsson is not, after all, joining Ferrari Ganassi for 2019 2020."
- Chrill, 28 Sep 2018 8 Oct 2019

Penfold

That seems like a question more firmly in Matt's wheelhouse than mine.  I do love all these bits you do with potential F1 drivers though; I really need to start paying more attention to the junior formulas again....
"I like beating and punching."
- Chrill (28/09/2018)

Chrill

I do love spreadsheets, and I do love motorsport. I just combine the two, even if noone else reads it. ;D

I'll collect my grid prediction thoughts into the one topic, instead of posting this in every other topic.
"It is becoming apparent Ericsson is not, after all, joining Ferrari Ganassi for 2019 2020."
- Chrill, 28 Sep 2018 8 Oct 2019

Matt

I don't think any of them should be higher than a 2. Ericsson and Grosjean should be 1 unless we're including one-offs or something. Ferrucci should be a 1 because there's no way European teams are touching him, he's not good enough anyway, and he's moving to NASCAR now.

I would put everyone as a 1 other than Herta and O'Ward, who would be 2. IndyCar isn't seen as a feeder to F1 now, and they would have to break through the existing F1 ladder that is already over-filled. And I think it's unlikely that anyone dominates IndyCar enough to do that because that's just not how IndyCar works.

Chrill

W Series two-time champion Jamie Chadwick is now up to 25 Super License points, which is the minimum required to compete in Friday practice. As reported earlier this year, for 2022 all teams will be forced to run a 3rd driver on Friday at two separate occasions:
https://racer.com/2021/09/28/all-f1-teams-to-run-rookie-drivers-twice-in-2022/

This year, Williams have used Roy Nissany 3 times. Surely Chadwick is a more marketable driver, and arguably faster too?

Alfa Romeo ran Ilott twice and Kubica three times, Zhou ran for Alpine at the Austrian Grand Prix.

I assume we'll see some more rookies in 2022. Who will Mercedes field for example, Frederik Vesti? Paul Aron?
"It is becoming apparent Ericsson is not, after all, joining Ferrari Ganassi for 2019 2020."
- Chrill, 28 Sep 2018 8 Oct 2019

Chrill

I rarely get to post about Swedes in junior racing so I'm happy for this!

Dino Beganovic, member of the Ferrari Driver Academy, finished 13th in last year's Formula Regional European Championship with a total of 53 points. After just two race weekends, he's now leading this year's championship on 86 points after two wins and two P2s in the opening four races. That's an improvement!

A picture of a swede:
"It is becoming apparent Ericsson is not, after all, joining Ferrari Ganassi for 2019 2020."
- Chrill, 28 Sep 2018 8 Oct 2019

Chrill

We have a Swedish champion in a junior racing category for the first time since Felix Rosenqvist won the F3 championship seven years ago (against names like Charles Leclerc, Antonio Giovinazzi, Lance Stroll, George Russell, Alex Albon, Callum Illott, Tatiana Calderón, and Santino Ferrucci. WOW that was a packed series in 2015). Dino Beganovic, member of the Ferrari Driver Academy, has won the Formula Regional European Championship by Alpine (FRECA), an F3 level series derived from Formula Renault.

The logical next step is moving into FIA Formula 3, likely with Prema which is a brilliant team to be in F3 with. Success there, and he could be in F2 for 2024 and, well, that's a difficult championship. If I get my way, we'll have him in F1 by 2026.

https://www.automobilsport.com/race-categories--24/race-categories--24,244257,Paul-Aron-wins-Race-1-and-Dino-Beganovic-is-crowned-champion-of-the-Formula-Regional-European-Championship-by-Alpine,news.htm
"It is becoming apparent Ericsson is not, after all, joining Ferrari Ganassi for 2019 2020."
- Chrill, 28 Sep 2018 8 Oct 2019

Chrill

https://www.motorsport.com/fia-f3/news/freca-champion-beganovic-joins-prema-in-f3-for-2023/10390579/

And with that, he is now confirmed at PREMA for an F3 campaign in 2023. The reigning Teams Champion, that sounds like a great place to be.
"It is becoming apparent Ericsson is not, after all, joining Ferrari Ganassi for 2019 2020."
- Chrill, 28 Sep 2018 8 Oct 2019