The 2017 Season

[Penfold]

I'm sure there's a better way of moving a thread to this new site, but I'm just going to copy & paste the posts of a few into manageable chunks of text.

I swear these threads are getting earlier every year - perhaps next time it will sneak in before Abu Dhabi - but the FIA has gone and ratified next year's calendar and it needed a good home to overwinter:

March 26 - Australia (Melbourne)
April 9 - China (Shanghai)
April 16 - Bahrain (Bahrain)
April 30 - Russia (Sochi)
May 14 - Spain (Barcelona)
May 28 - Monaco (Monte Carlo)
June 11 - Canada (Montreal)
June 25 - Azerbaijan (Baku)
July 9 - Austria (Spielberg)
July 16 - Great Britain (Silverstone)
July 30 - Hungary (Budapest)
August 27 - Belgium (Spa-Francorchamps)
September 3 - Italy (Monza)
September 17 - Singapore (Singapore)
October 1 - Malaysia (Sepang)
October 8 - Japan (Suzuka)
October 22 - USA (Austin)
October 29 - Mexico (Mexico City)
November 12 - Brazil (Sao Paulo)
November 26 - Abu Dhabi (Abu Dhabi)

Brazil is provisional as Bernie is still in discussions with that country's President.


Renault bringing new engine design for 2017 - complete with concepts not seen in F1 (probably); unit's output will be dialled back at start of season to ensure reliability, but is said to offer much scope for improvement: http://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/renault-expects-cautious-start-with-all-new-2017-f1-engine-861660/

It seems Renault is gunning for 2018, yeah? Their current engine is nearing the end of its development life so this is a good idea. It might mean Mercedes will secure the championship before Red Bull get up to speed though.

That's it in a nutshell.  Clearly essential development for Renault's future success but, as you say, it may simply mean Merc. can sprint ahead in the 2017 contest - unless Newey & team can produce a car of astonishing brilliance; or if Ferrari turn out a... nah, forget it, not going to happen.

Exactly.

So how about Honda getting everything right? Or, Mercedes getting it pretty wrong on aero but maintaining a dominant engine? That would push Force India up there.

I wouldn't bank on Merc getting any aspect wrong....

I can imagine McLaren being right up with Ferrari, or even ahead depending how the prancing horse guys adapt to these new regs, but challenging Mercedes?  I just can't see them closing such a huge gap in one bite; frankly if they can be consistently within half a second in qualifying, and just a few tenths off on race pace, then I'd be more than a little impressed.

I hadn't noticed but the Baku Street Circuit is labelled as the "2017 Azerbaijan Grand Prix" instead of the European Grand Prix. That actually makes me a bit happy. Also does not clash with Le Mans.

Both positives.  Not exactly of earth-shattering importance, but as Plato was fond of saying: it's better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick....

Here's one chap not overly optimistic about 2017's rule changes: http://en.f1i.com/news/88555-new-rules-not-change-better-says-f1-designer-furbatto.html

Bah. Without reading Mister Pessimist, my gut feeling tells me that we might well see fewer overtakes under braking or due to significantly different tyre wear levels, but we will see more overtakes caused by driver error.

Mika Hakkinen's magnificent move on Schumacher at Spa was helped by his ability to stay close through Eau Rouge. With new rules, drivers can go flat out there (Even when trailing someone else) which effectively makes the whole run after Eau Rouge more closely packed. The ability to stay closer behind others in medium-to-high-speed corners will open up for slipstreaming battles on the following straights.

I can picture drivers making stupid rookie errors over the final 10 laps of GPs, Singapore in particular, simply due to exhaustion. This opens up for unusual finishing positions for the lucky guys. Yes, luck might matter again. That can cause upsets and surprises which we want. I'd love to see a podium with a Toro Rosso, a McLaren, and a Williams (as opposed to a Mercedes, another Mercedes, and a Red Bull).

I'm definitely more with your optimism than that guy's pessimism.  For one thing, we have the prospect of tyres that allow drivers to push even when close to another car - imagine that!  And if they do overheat you should be able to drop back for a time and regain performance ready for another attack.  And there's the two points you make: being better able to stay in contact through high-speed corners; and added driver fatigue courtesy of faster cornering speeds, more violent braking, and those (hopefully) durable tyres.  I assume there will also be a bump in the benefits of slip-streaming, what with the chunky new wheels dirtying the air.

I assume there will also be a bump in the benefits of slip-streaming, what with the chunky new wheels dirtying the air.

Quite true. The car in front will have to punch through more air (wider car) and the air will be dirtier (bigger tyres) which will give an increased advantage to anyone stuck behind. The negative may of course be a difficulty staying behind a car through slower or medium speed corners.

Crazy enough, Monaco may become easier to overtake at. You could get a good run of the car in front through the right hander in the tunnel. It's possible.

[Penfold]

Only a week until Sauber dazzles us with their new car, the others following on shortly thereafter.

While we wait for such delights to fill the F1 winter void, we must struggle by on thin gruel such as this: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/02/14/renault-appoints-new-head-aerodynamics/
Yes, a new aero guy for Renault.  That seems to be about the biggest F1 story of the day.


... and Williams hires ex-Ferrari aero guy: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/02/16/williams-hires-ex-ferrari-aerodynamicist/

Can't be any worse than whoever's been in charge of that department until now.


Engine & chassis designed for each other and other such improvements, out of the mouth of Renault's Remi Taffin: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/02/21/renaults-engine-fits-car-year-taffin/


Honda chap forecasts engine to be at level of Merc's offering by opening race, though unfortunately that's the 2016 Merc engine and not this year's: http://www.crash.net/f1/news/240430/1/honda-reveals-targets-for-90-per-cent-new-engine.html

Well, November 2016 Merc was far better than November 2016 Honda. If they improve like that over the winter, imagine where the Honda will be after the summer break, let alone next season? Alonso might just continue for another year if what Honda is saying comes true.

I like lists. So far, after 2.5 days of testing, this is how I rate all the teams. THE LIST MAY CONTAIN SURPRISES

1. Ferrari (yup)
2. Mercedes (quite)
---
3. Red Bull
4. Williams (yeah)
5. Toro Rosso
6. Renault
7. Force India
8. McLaren
9. Haas
---
10. Sauber

I think Williams are looking pretty good, I think Sauber is in quite big trouble (Ericsson says he is happy, but I watched a video interview with Swedish broadcaster Viasat and his body expression claim that something is badly wrong).

The words coming out are that the Ferrari and Mercedes teams are in a league of their own. The Ferrari is apparently crazy stable through mid/high-speed corners. So is the Mercedes, perhaps not quite as well as the Italian car but far superior to the rest.

Red Bull are running a fairly naked car in terms of advanced aerodynamic solutions so they may well catch up by Australia. Williams are looking OK so far, although their car also appears a bit naked.

I am so far very disappointed with McLaren, who are already using their 3rd engine this week. It's not looking reliable, and so they cannot focus on setting the car up. I fully expect my ratings to change by test 2 and still prove inaccurate come Australia.

I know the Mercedes has broken into the 1m19s bracket on super-softs, but watching at the fast Turn 9 right-hander the Ferrari doing 1m21s on mediums still looks the most impressive car to me. It just looks so stable and consistent.
- Gary Anderson

Fair reading of current state of play.  Still expect it to be Merc, Red Bull, and then Ferrari once the season gets going, but with much tighter bunching than in recent years.  Also expect McLaren (Honda) to pull it together and haul themselves well into the 'best of the rest' battle.

Lance Stroll is off again. In two days, he has crashed three times. You know what, in pretty much one day he has crashed 3 times. This is embarassing. He was off after only a few laps on his first day, and now just crashed for the second time today.

On a related note, hasstrollcrashedtoday.com is available. Perhaps buy it and redirect to here, Matt?

Some words of comfort for Stroll from a certain Mr. L. Hamilton: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/03/02/hamilton-defends-stroll-its-not-an-easy-car-to-drive/

Hammy being nice to other drivers? I am sure this is #fakenews.

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Pirelli wets not up to snuff, new ones planned for China GP: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/128343/pirelli-already-planning-new-wet-tyres

[Matt]

Let's be honest, you just wanted to make sure you jumped out to a healthy post count lead over Chrill.

[Penfold]

Fringe benefit.

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All going swimmingly for McHonda: https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/honda-admits-mechanical-issue-a-worry-for-f1-season-start-879232/

[Chrill]

I've already counted out McHonda for the 2017 season. They'll have to run the 2016 engine to achieve any sort of reliability.

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They won't do that so we'd better expect some early DNFs.  I still think they can be fourth come season end (I may be hopelessly wrong!), but obviously loss of testing mileage does put them even further on the back foot.

[Chrill]

Suffice to say I won't pick Alonso as my 2nd driver.

[Penfold]

Williams (Massa), Force India & Toro Rosso all seem a safer bet at the moment; but then again McHonda could have trouble-free running in this week's tests... and England could win the next World Cup.

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Tyre guy says non-stop races would be possible at certain tracks - but of course drivers must use two different compounds: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/03/05/drivers-can-go-non-stop-on-new-tyres-hembery/

[Chrill]

Depending on the circuit, Pirelli man comments make me think a tactic could be to go on Softs the entire race, and only switch to the harder of the compounds with a few laps to go. Why waste time on slower compounds?

If the ultra softs can cope with the "pressure" of the Monaco Street Circuit, why not do 70ish laps on them and switch to supers at the final lap?

[Penfold]

I'm sure we'll see something along those lines if the softer compounds can take it.  And talking of tyres... The Hulk is loving them: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/03/07/new-tyres-double-the-fun-hulkenberg/

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Force India has much work to do before Melbourne: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/128418/force-india-has-found-EUR~a-lot-of-weaknessesEURTM


Alonso: "We have only one problem, that is the power unit.  There is no reliability and there is no power."  Yes, it's 2016 all over - though at least no token system for 2017 so Honda can solve its ills, or at least they are free to try.  Transcript of Q&A with Fernando: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/03/09/qa-alonso-on-mclaren-hondas-troubled-start/

[Chrill]

Sauber's best chance at avoiding last place this year is McLaren.