Chrill's Ludicrously Gut feeling-based Grid Predictions of the Future

[Chrill]

Chrill's Ludicrously Gut Feeling-based Grid Predictions of the Future, or CLGFGPF (pronounced Cole-gaffah-guhpaff), is literally just a spreadsheet where I pretend to know who will perform well in the future, and therefore make it into F1.

My first question is this:
- Assuming Esteban Ocon fails to keep up with Fernando Alonso in 2021, I expect him to be dropped for Pierre Gasly in 2022. Where will Ocon go?

I have myself looking at two options:
1. Williams Racing (they are unlikely to keep Russell onboard for 2022, so an opening exists without a natural replacement)
2. Third driver combined with other series

What are your thoughts?

[Matt]

Pierre Gasly is not very good and very well could lose to Tsunoda. That is my thought.

If Ocon gets dropped from Renault then he'll just be gone.

[Chrill]

I disagree re Pierre Gasly, but we'll see what 2021 holds for the two French drivers. Part of (literally ALL of) my CLGFGPF is indeed guesswork.

[Penfold]

I'm with Matt on Ocon, don't see him joining anyone else.

About Russell... where will he go for '22 if Merc sticks with Ham/Bot?  I would've thought a one-year extension with Williams most likely, so he's ready to hop into that Mercedes in '23 if needed.

[Chrill]

I think if Mercedes make the mistake of not promoting Russell for 2022, he will move to whatever team will give him a proper go. Be that Ferrari, Red Bull, or McLaren/Alpine. He's already driven the Williams for 2 years and will now do his 3rd this year. Will he really spend a 4th season at Williams? Perhaps if his next deal is a guaranteed Mercedes 2023 drive, but otherwise not.

Rounds claim Lewis and Mercedes are definitely nearing an agreement, and some people think Lewis have managed to secure a clause in which he can veto his partner. That would ensure a Hamilton-Bottas status quo for 2022 and probably 2023 (depending on contract length), unless Lewis uses the veto to promote Russell.

[Penfold]

Four years is not an unreasonable time for a driver to learn his craft at the back of the field before being promoted into a top team.  That said, any later than '23 and I agree he'll start looking elsewhere, though where is anyone's guess given the potential for the grid to be shuffled around with next year's rule changes.  Red Bull is an interesting thought though, Perez not getting any younger so how long until they're hunting for a replacement?

[Chrill]

I'm fearful of how Red Bull will act if Tsunoda has a strong 2021 campaign at AlphaTauri. Will they promote him too early too?

[Penfold]

Forgot about him.  You'd hope RB would learn from past mistakes but who knows.  Shouldn't be any reason to jettison Perez after just one year, so surely sensible to give Tsunoda a couple of years at AlphaTauri no matter how strong his performance.

[Chrill]

Yeah. If Perez regularly qualifies 3rd or 4th, battling it out with Bottas but ahead of the midfield, and scores fairly regular podiums, he should be given a second season. If he takes the battle to Verstappen every now and then, it'll be interesting to see what the Dutchman does.

[Chrill]

OK. I've been home sick all week, so here comes the 2025 grid. That's a fair few seasons from now. The following have retired:

Lewis Hamilton (39 years old, after the 2024 season)
Daniel Ricciardo (34 years old, after the 2023 season) (I know, it's so very very soon!)
Fernando Alonso (42 years old, after the 2022 season)
Sebastian Vettel (36 years old, after the 2023 season)

In addition to the four retirees, Nikita Mazepin left the sport at the end of the 2024 season, aged 25, after racing near the back with Haas for four full seasons.

To make it easier, I have not inluded team predictions such as Andretti buying Alfa Romeo or Williams. I have assumed current ownership remains for all 10 teams.

So, the 2025 season consists of:

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team:
4. Lando Norris (McLaren until 2024, Mercedes since 2025)
63. George Russell (since 2021)

Red Bull Racing:
10. Pierre Gasly (AlphaTauri until 2022, Red Bull since 2023)
33. Max Verstappen (since 2016) (his tenth season at Red Bull!)

Scuderia Ferrari Mission Winnow:
16. Charles Leclerc (since 2019)
47. Mick Schumacher (Haas until 2023, Ferrari since 2024)

McLaren F1 Team: (yeah, this pairing requires two Red Bull dropouts, one of which raced here before. Ah)
22. Yuki Tsunoda (AlphaTauri until 2024, McLaren since 2025)
55. Carlos Sainz (Ferrari until 2023, McLaren since 2024)

Alpine F1 Team:
31. Esteban Ocon (since 2020)
?. Oscar Piastri (since 2023)

Scuderia AlphaTauri:
?. Dennis Hauger (since 2024)
?. Jack Doohan (since 2025)
(Liam Lawson raced for one season in 2023, replacing Gasly who joined Red Bull, but had a poor showing and was replaced by Hauger for 2024)

Aston Martin Cognizant F1 Team:
11. Sergio Pérez (Red Bull until 2022, Aston Martin since 2023)
18. Lance Stroll (since 2019)

Williams Racing:
6. Nicolas Latifi (since 2020)
23. Alexander Albon (since 2022)

Alfa Romeo Racing Orlen:
77. Valtteri Bottas (since 2021) (Also the oldest driver in F1 at age 36!)
?. Théo Pourchaire (since 2024)

Uralkali Haas F1 Team:
24. Guanyu Zhou (Alfa Romeo until 2023, Haas since 2024)
?. Jak Crawford (since 2025)



Of course many of these moves happened more out of "uh, who's available?" rather than anything else. I decided to retire Ricciardo early because I feel like he'll grow tired of always racing near, never at, the front, so that set some things in motion and resulted in a spot for Schumacher at Ferrari with Sainz going back to his buddy Norris.

When Hamilton eventually retired, Norris was drafted in to replace him but that could just as well have been another Mercedes junior or someone from outside the Mercedes family like Verstappen, Piastri, or Gasly.

[Penfold]

Well Chuck Norris has committed to McLaren until at least 2025, so there's one to feed into your predictions!

[Chrill]

How's this for a prediction?

Out of all drivers currently on the grid, only 3 will be World Champions when it ends.

Max Verstappen will equal Lewis with 7 World Championships, his last in 2029. He will retire in 2031, aged just 34.

Charles Leclerc will win the World Championship next season, 2023, but he will never win again.

George Russell will be the next British world champion, taking the crown in 2026.

By 2030, Piastri will be fighting Norris, Russell and Leclerc and will win at least 2 back-to-back championships. In 2032 and beyond, it is no longer possible to tell because I can only see 10 years into the future.