2020 Driver Speculation

[Chrill]

Ocon and Bottas added to table, then:

Mercedes-AMG Petronas Motorsport:
44. Lewis Hamilton (link)
77. Valtteri Bottas (link)

Scuderia Ferrari Mission Winnow:
5. Sebastian Vettel (link)
16. Charles Leclerc
14. Fernando Alonso (link)
33. Max Verstappen (link)

Aston Martin Red Bull Racing:
33. Max Verstappen (link)
5. Sebastian Vettel (link)
10. Pierre Gasly (link)
23. Alexander Albon (link)
26. Daniil Kvyat (link)

McLaren F1 Team:
4. Lando Norris (link)
55. Carlos Sainz (link)

Red Bull Toro Rosso Honda:
10. Pierre Gasly (link)
23. Alexander Albon (link)
26. Daniil Kvyat (link)
?. Patricio O'Ward (link)
?. Sébastien Buemi (link)

Renault F1 Team:
3. Daniel Ricciardo (link)
31. Esteban Ocon (link)

SportPesa Racing Point F1 Team:
11. Sergio Perez (link)
18. Lance Stroll (link)
?. Nicolas Latifi (link)

Haas F1 Team:
20. Kevin Magnussen (link)
8. Romain Grosjean
11. Sergio Perez (link)
27. Nico Hülkenberg (link)

Alfa Romeo Racing:
7. Kimi Räikkönen (link)
99. Antonio Giovinazzi (link)
?. Mick Schumacher (link)

ROKiT Williams Racing:
63. George Russell (link)
88. Robert Kubica
?. Nicolas Latifi (link)

[Penfold]

The interesting bit is who gets seat no. 2 at Red Bull if Albon doesn't perform?  Give Gasly/Kvyat another shot, or do they draft someone in from outside the Red Bull family... perhaps Hulk could fill the gap for a season or two.

[Matt]

I don't think Hulk will be available by the time Red Bull could make that decision.

[Chrill]

The interesting bit is who gets seat no. 2 at Red Bull if Albon doesn't perform?  Give Gasly/Kvyat another shot, or do they draft someone in from outside the Red Bull family... perhaps Hulk could fill the gap for a season or two.

It will depend on the second half of Toro Rosso's season really, assuming Albon fails to impress. If Gasly outperforms Kvyat, he'll return to Red Bull. If Kvyat outperforms Gasly, he'll return to Red Bull. If they're both mediocre, it will have to be someone like Grosjean since he is looking likelier than ever to be available. They will of course try to persuade Alonso, maybe Rosberg, possibly even someone in the midfield like Kimi (?!) or Perez.

[Penfold]

That's a good point, Matt.  Hulk's not going to hang around for too long on the off-chance that Red Bull gives him a call.

[Chrill]

Theoretically, Hulk could sign a two-way contract with Red Bull. If Albon fails to secure X points, Hulk gets that drive. If Albon succeeds, Hulk moves to Toro Rosso. It's a decent midfield team, the Italian Bulls.

[Penfold]

Say, do you guys remember way back in the middle of August when Perez said he'd only be interested in racing F1 beyond 2021 if podiums were on the cards?  Well, it turns out he has a crystal ball which showed him Racing Point as a highly competitive outfit come 2022 and so he has extended his contract until the end of that year: https://www.racefans.net/2019/08/30/perez-locks-in-three-year-deal-to-stay-at-racing-point/

[Chrill]

One would assume there is a performance clause, both ways, for that deal. I'll add him to the table.

[Penfold]

Interesting(ish) to see that Ocon's two-year deal with Renault doesn't allow Mercedes to nip in and grab him for 2021: https://www.racefans.net/2019/09/11/ocon-cannot-replace-hamilton-or-bottas-at-mercedes-in-2021/

Mind you, were Hamilton to depart at the end of next year I doubt Mercedes would be keen on a Bottas/Ocon pairing for '21; whereas if Bottas leaves (gets the boot) I'd love to see Russell get the seat - assuming that having two British drivers is acceptable to the Merc. hierarchy.

[Chrill]

I'd say Russell is currently ahead of Ocon, courtesy of him first winning the F2 title and then bringing the Williams near the midfield if not right into it.

Ocon need to take on Ricciardo and probably beat him if he is to keep a chance of promotion into Mercedes for 2021. I am not sure he will be able to beat Ricciardo.

For 2021, it currently seems like Hamilton might still want to be in F1, but if not then I see Russell and someone external (Vettel, Verstappen, Norris, Ricciardo, etc.?) being promoted to the other seat.

[Penfold]

I share your doubt about Ocon besting Ricky Hairdo, and surely Esteban would have to really thrash Danny for Mercedes to consider buying him out of his Renault contract.

What, no mention of Alonso as a near-certain replacement for Hammy should he quit Merc/F1 before 2021?  What a terrible oversight!

[Chrill]

Alonso has hinted toward rejoining F1 in 2021, but he will be 40 by then. Oh, wait, Kimi is 40 this year and will race next year too. Fine, Alonso can return if he so wishes. Would Mercedes? Honestly, they kind of might. I'll throw him in at a 2% chance. I would say, 1/50 times they would pick Alonso to partner someone for 2021.

[Chrill]

It's all about Grosjean or the Hulk for Haas in 2020, and the decision is very difficult, according to Gene Haas and Herr Steiner.
http://classic.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/145928

[Penfold]

Not sure where besides Williams the Hulk could go if he doesn't get the Haas gig.

[Chrill]

Well, I am beginning to hope for Vettel to leave Ferrari. I'm slightly fed up with his constant solo errors. The Hulk would be a decent wingman to young Charlie Lick-Lerk.