2022 Driver Speculation

[Chrill]

https://www.racefans.net/2021/05/19/norris-commits-to-mclaren-with-new-multi-year-deal/

Thank God we have a topic for this.

[Penfold]

Great for McLaren to lock him in before any spot at Merc or Red Bull emerges to tempt young Norris.  With Danny Boy ensconced in seat no. 2, McLaren arguably has the strongest pairing in F1 - hopefully next year they get the car into podium-fighting shape, tough ask but opportunity abounds with the new regs.

[Chrill]

Yes, having Calrissian and Ricciardo in the same team is definitely a very strong driver pairing. Lando was already confirmed for 2022 I think, so this is essentially a one-year contract extension.

[Chrill]

Alpine announces their intention to keep Ocon for 2022:
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/alpine-talks-ocon-new-f1-contract/6511975/

[Penfold]

He seems to be doing a decent job so fair enough

[Chrill]

I guess Gasly to Alpine is looking less likely, now that they announced a three-year extension for Ocon!

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.breaking-esteban-ocon-signs-bumper-three-year-contract-extension-with-alpine.5nWR2pWD1COJzdyB73g8NM.html

He'll remain with Alpine until 2024. That's a long contract.

EDIT: Updated the top post. Weird to see Mercedes SECOND in that list, eh?

[Penfold]

It's been a while... hope it continues!

Edit: Makes it that much harder for Alpine's juniors to plot a path into F1, thinking primarily of Zhou and Piastri who are both flying in F2

[Chrill]

Right. We're at a point where we can start guessing the 2022 grid, no? I think most teams will hang on to their drivers, but I think we'll see Mercedes swapping Bottas for Russell and Kimi to retire.

If Ricciardo stays this far behind Norris all season, the British team could dump the Aussie. I do think, however, they'll keep him on for 2022. A new car could suit his driving style far better, a car he's helped develop.

So what will happen then?

Red Bull Racing:
11. Sergio Perez
33. Max Verstappen

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team:
44. Lewis Hamilton
63. George Russell (NEW)

McLaren F1 Team:
3. Daniel Ricciardo
4. Lando Norris

Scuderia Mission Winnow Ferrari:
16. Charles Leclerc
55. Carlos Sainz

Scuderia AlphaTauri Red Bull:
10. Pierre Gasly
22. Yuki Tsunoda

Aston Martin Cognizant F1 Team:
5. Sebastian Vettel
18. Lance Stroll

Alpine F1 Team:
14. Fernando Alonso
31. Esteban Ocon

Alfa Romeo Racing Orlen:
12. Callum Ilott (NEW)
99. Antonio Giovinazzi

Williams Racing:
77. Valtteri Bottas (NEW)
88. Guanyu Zhou (NEW)

Uralkali Haas F1 Team:
9. Nikita Mazepin
47. Mick Schumacher


So, to discuss the changes:
1. Russell to Mercedes - Well, the paddock is buzzing with rumours Russell has already signed, and he implied it too in an interview with Dutch TV. They asked something along the lines of "You seem to have secured a better future too" and Russell laughed and said "Let's leave it at that", or something along those lines. Means, of course, step 2 needs to happen.
2. Bottas to Williams - With very few seats available elsewhere, Bottas returns to Williams. Their upturn in form, and their ability to spend more on the 2022 car than other teams thanks to their 2020 result, means Williams could be a strong midfield contender next season. This is enough to bring Bottas back home.
3. Zhou to Williams - This is a bit of a stretch, but stay with me. First of all, Latifi brings money. Second of all, Zhou is tied to Alpine. Now, though, Alpine needs somewhere to stash their junior drivers, so they'll pay Williams for the seat. Also, getting into the Chinese market could be very lucrative for Williams indeed. Zhou, possibly a F2 champion by next season, is arguably the next in line to be promoted into F1, but Alonso and Ocon is staying for 2022.
4. Ilott to Alfa Romeo - With Kimi retiring, Ferrari will slot a second junior at Alfa Romeo. Giovinazzi will be retained in the "senior" position, and Ilott will effectively replace Giovinazzi as the Ferrari junior at Alfa Romeo. Makes enough sense, he even drove for them this Friday.

Latifi and Raikkonen leave F1. One by lack of results, one by choice.

[Matt]

Arguably both by lack of results.

I can't think of another recent driver who has held on to an F1 seat as long as Giovinazzi for basically no reason.

[Chrill]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/bottas-alfa-romeo-link-2022-mercedes-russell/6635439/

Bottas to Alfa Romeo? I mean, makes sense. If Kimi retires, Bottas is a proven race winner. And if Giovinazzi is finally dropped, maybe a Bottas-Schumacher pairing is possible.

[Chrill]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/williams-doesnt-need-pay-drivers-any-more/6642166/

Sorry Latifi, no drive for you!

Assuming Russell moves to Mercedes, who could be in the running for the two Williams seats?

Valtteri Bottas
Nico Hülkenberg
Daniil Kvyat
Nyck de Vries
Nicolas Latifi
I still think Guanyu Zhou or Oscar Piastri could drive for them, if Alpine buy a seat

[Chrill]

And with that said, I'll update the table.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team:
44. Lewis Hamilton (link) (NEW!)
18. Lance Stroll (link) (NEW!)
33. Max Verstappen (link)
63. George Russell (link)
77. Valtteri Bottas (link)

Red Bull Racing Honda:
33. Max Verstappen (link)
10. Pierre Gasly (link) (NEW!)
11. Sergio Perez (link)
22. Yuki Tsunoda (link)
23. Alexander Albon (link)

Scuderia Mission Winnow Ferrari:
16. Charles Leclerc (link)
55. Carlos Sainz (link)

McLaren F1 Team:
3. Daniel Ricciardo (link)
4. Lando Norris (link)

Alpine F1 Team:
31. Esteban Ocon (link)
14. Fernando Alonso (link)

Scuderia AlphaTauri Honda:
10. Pierre Gasly (link)
22. Yuki Tsunoda (link)
23. Alexander Albon (link)
?. Jak Crawford (link)
?. Jehan Daruvala (link)
?. Jonny Edgar (link)
?. Jüri Vips (link)
?. Liam Lawson (link)

Aston Martin Cognizant F1 Team:
5. Sebastian Vettel (link)
18. Lance Stroll (link)
27. Nico Hülkenberg (link)
77. Valtteri Bottas (link) (NEW!)

Williams Racing:
6. Nicolas Latifi (link)
63. George Russell (link)
77. Valtteri Bottas (link) (NEW!)
?. Frederik Vesti (link)

Alfa Romeo Racing Orlen:
7. Kimi Räikkönen (link)
77. Valtteri Bottas (link) (NEW!)
99. Antonio Giovinazzi (link)
?. Callum Ilott (link)
?. Marcus Armstrong (link)
?. Robert Shwartzman (link)

Uralkali Haas F1 Team:
9. Nikita Mazepin (link)
47. Mick Schumacher (link)



Added the rather dumb Villeneuve rumour of Stroll and Bottas switching places, as well as made Hamilton confirmed, Gasly to Red Bull speculated, Bottas to Alfa Romeo or Williams speculated. I also changed Alonso and Schumacher to speculated, because even though back in 2020 their deals were multi-year, it seems now those were only options and no confirmation on the option being used yet.

[Penfold]

Well, latest speculation places Bottas and de Vries at Alfa, and has Albon making a swift return to F1 by grabbing a seat at Williams. That's a pretty interesting line-up at Alfa, and I wouldn't be sad to see Blur get another shot in a less pressured environment.

... and of course we've had Perez and Alonso confirmed for next year, so all slowly taking shape.

[Chrill]

I'm intrigued by Mercedes putting de Vries at Alfa when a Williams seat is open. Or are Williams actively looking toward Albon over a Mercedes junior, so Alfa was the option left for Mercedes?

Either way, this whole Raikkonen-Bottas-Russell-Albon-De Vries-Giovinazzi situation is to be announced at Monza according to most sources. That's soon!

[Chrill]

The news literally everyone expected? Kimi confirms his retirement:
https://www.racefans.net/2021/09/01/raikkonen-announces-his-retirement-at-end-of-2021-season/

Definitely a step 1 in the whole Raikkonen-Bottas-Russell-Albon-De Vries-Giovinazzi saga.