Are these pre-season times largely meaningless? Well, maybe, but anyway let's have a gander at who managed what in the first four days of circling Barcelona: http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2017/03/03/2017-test-one-best-driver-times-and-tyres-used/
Bottas bombing it round Barcelona to go fastest in yesterday's test: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJnFqmRo700
The times themselves without any background is useless. The fact Ferrari is regularly the fastest car on harder compounds is more relevant. If they can lap fast on softs, you bet they can lap fast on supers and ultras too.
I want to believe. I really do. But can Ferrari really deliver come Australia? I somehow doubt it. We'll have a Hamilton-Bottas-Vettel podium, unless Massa springs a surprise. The Williams car looks fairly decent too. The Red Bulls have some catching up to do.
Agree that Ferrari looking very strong but can they be no. 1? Like you I have my doubts, but perhaps these years of Merc dominance have simply pounded the 'hope' section of my F1 brain into submission.
I'll just dump this collection of the fastest times per car over these two weeks:
1. Ferrari, 1:18.364
2. Mercedes, 1:19.310
3. Williams, 1:19.420
4. Red Bull, 1:19.438
5. Toro Rosso, 1:19.837
6. Renault, 1:19.885
7. Force India, 1:20.116
8. Haas, 1:20.504
9. McLaren, 1:21.348
10. Sauber, 1:21.670
Of course this doesn't tell you the full picture, but something like this is how I currently see the field. Mercedes is clearly sandbagging, they are not a full second slower than Ferrari. The question is, just how much do the Mercs have in store and just how close to their limit was that Ferrari lap? Compare it to 2016, where Ferrari also set the fastest lap in pre-season. They were .2 seconds faster than Mercedes and .3 seconds faster than third placed Force India. Red Bull's best laptime was .75 seconds slower, but remember Red Bull did enter the 2016 season slower than Ferrari.
We're now seeing a 1 second gap to Mercedes, 1.1 seconds to Red Bull. Clearly the Ferrari IS more competitive. The question is simply how competitive the Mercedes is. Long runs they look about the same, perhaps with a slight tyre usage disadvantage for Mercedes. The Ferrari appears to post fairly competitive lap times deeper into stints.
Question is... will McHonda resolve their electrical issues before Melbourne? Got to assume they will I suppose, but at the moment team seems mightily puzzled as to the exact cause of the problems.
Here's hoping Ferrari/Merc/Red Bull provide us with a great battle on the 25th & 26th, and of course all race weekends that follow.
I read from Sky Sports (I believe) that the Honda engine is shaking and vibrating so badly that it literally shakes itself apart. That's what causing their reliability woes. I heard from my former boss (he knows McLaren people, the nerd) that they are in talks with Ferrari for a 2018 engine. How about that huh.
A McLaren-Ferrari... that would be one to wrap my head around. Still, no restrictions on development of power units so Honda should be able to sort itself... question is when.
No restriction on development, true. But bear in mind that they can only use 4 power units over a season. The engine they use in Australia will have to do some 3-4 races at the very very least.
I'm expecting them to use more than the four permitted and take any grid penalties on the chin.
More woe for McHonda in Bahrain as they manage a paltry seventeen laps on day one of testing. Handy little tool for keeping track of those Honda failures: https://hasmclarenbrokendown.com/
The problem with "Has McLaren Broken Down" is that it wont change. At least Stroll or Maldonado SOMETIMES doesn't crash. McLaren always breaks down.
This is sadly true, at least for the time being. It does, however, provide a handy listing of failures thus far: https://hasmclarenbrokendown.com/breakdowns/
Bumpy.
With less than an hour to go, Kubica has completed about 2 race distances in his 2017 car for Renault. He has by far completed the required number of laps for an FIA Super License. He hasn't done any quali style laps really, but he is "only" 1.5 seconds shy of Hülkenberg's laptime in Q3 this Saturday. His best is a 1m18.952s which would have put him in Q2 had he qualified with that time in Q1. In comparison, Palmer's best from Saturday was 1m18.415 in Q2 so Kubica is only half a second behind. Already. Despite not doing a proper quali run.
Renault F1 has confirmed they have ultra softs available for later today, but his best is so far done with supersofts (the tyre also used in qualifying at Hungaroring).
Good showing from Kubica (surely now zero chance that he doesn't make a comeback) but I was even more impressed by Norris and his 1'17.385 - half a second quicker than Stoffel managed in qualifying. Okay, Chuck's time set on ultra-softs... but damn impressive for a 17-year-old's first outing in an F1 car.
Also, Ghiotto completing 161 laps for Williams... that's some serious mileage.
Yes, Chuck Norris clearly carries a future in F1.
Very impressed that Kubica managed 140ish laps at a scorching hot (38 Celsius!) Hungaroring which is very narrow and twisty. His best lap times came at the end of the day too. Afterwards he said he was exhausted mentally but physically he could do it again tomorrow. So clearly he is capable of racing a 2017 car.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DGX5IoNUAAIUsGp?format=jpg)
I think this is the best picture of Kubica's arm and you can really compare it to his left arm here. It's quite amazing that he can drive any racing car, much less an F1 car. Pure arm strength isn't that important in F1, but with the tightly enclosed space and everything else, it still has to be difficult.
Yes, I saw that photo. His damage is so much more severe than I thought. The fact he completed two race distances with reliable and competitive laptimes is absurd. How is it possible?
Kubica's best lap so far is a 1:41.296. That puts him in P6 at the moment, ahead of for example Alonso but behind drivers such as Grosjean and H?lkenberg. It's faster than Stroll's FP1 time which is comparable considering how many laps they have completed, but not comparable considering the current track status. It's definitely more grippy after a full weekend of F1.
Kubica fitted sexy hypersofts on his car today for some high speed quali style runs. The result? He was 0.2 seconds faster than Stroll's best lap in Q2 last Saturday.
Kubica: 1:39.485
Stroll: 1:39.646
Kubica was just under 2 seconds slower than Vettel in the Ferrari, also pushing the hypersofts. I mean, sure the hypers are softer than the supers, but if Kubica can already match (and edge ahead of) Stroll with this little running under his belt, surely he is a good candidate for a race seat.
And a better candidate than the other options out there.
Let us reuse this one.
First of all, weather is apparently so cold it may snow tomorrow. Talks are held about postponing one of the testing days to Monday next week which would tie into the second test.
(https://scontent-arn2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/28238184_412151592546433_2843941422141581820_o.jpg?oh=76f50731c204265370460b91d48a7331&oe=5B186189)
Due to weather, there is absolutely no point in labelling Red Bull a world championship contender or labelling the Toro Rosso an apparent success. The only thing worth noting is the number of laps that every single team got through perfectly fine. Alonso binned it but still managed to get back out there and put some laps down. Sirotkin put his laps down in the afternoon when there was rain and temperatures around 5 Celsius. A bit too cold for F1 tyres.
That's a shame. With normal weather conditions the first day of testing is an incredibly accurate indicator of a team's true pace....
Well... First day of 2017 testing was topped by Hamilton ahead of Vettel. Sauber and McLaren at the very bottom of the timesheets.
I can't believe you automatically assumed I was being sarcastic....
Aren't you always?
I've decided from these first two days that the 2018 Sauber is what the 2017 Sauber was. Among the worst.
Can't argue with any of that. And that statement is 100% sarcasm free.
Cold and very wet weather expected today in Barcelona, leading Haas to say: "I think if we're going to have a day like this... tomorrow [Wednesday] is wet the whole day and if it is wet and only four or five degrees there is no point to go out there. You don't learn anything, you will never run in this circumstances and anything you do you risk the car. Being the first test of the season we are leaning on spares and we can't risk it."
I'll be surprised if they're the only ones who don't bother with much/any running today.
It's not 4-5 degrees. It's a bit colder. And it's not raining either.
(https://scontent-arn2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/28280000_1194227054047565_3975314105250804523_n.jpg?oh=07605cd030d8cacfdf170bc2197d6697&oe=5B4D762C)
So that's not really helpful in terms of, you know, limited testing.
On the other hand, we have got a lovely photo out of it. So, every cloud and all that....
Warmer tomorrow but could well be wet; next week looking much more conducive to F1 testing.
Well, there have been a total of 4 laps this session. Two by Ricciardo, one each for Alonso and Ericsson. So surely a lot of good information has been uncovered.
OK, four (three) days of testing completed. We have learned some things:
Mercedes are capable of producing rather fast laps rather quickly on harder tyre compounds. Their car looks easy to drive, which it never quite did in 2017. They labelled the old car a diva, this one seems not to be that. 2018 car definitely better than 2017.
Ferrari looks OK too, but not as good as Mercedes. Nothing has changed.
Red Bull having some issues but are fast when running. Seems to keep their P3.
Behind them, Renault and McLaren seem to perhaps stand out from "the crowd" as it were.
Toro Rosso is right in there with the apparently very reliable Honda engine. Toro Rosso completed more laps than any other team during these first days of testings. No hickups whatsoever.
Haas, Sauber, Force India, and Williams all appear rather anonymous so far.
Judging from these few days of limited pre-season running in near-freezing conditions:
1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Renault
5. McLaren
6. Toro Rosso
7. Force India
8. Williams
9. Haas
10. Sauber
Keep it all crossed for four days of fair weather running next week. I'm betting on Red Bull being right with Ferrari this year and maybe even troubling Merc at certain tracks. I think the only changes I'd make to your rankings is to swap round Renault & McLaren, and also Toro Rosso with Force India. But who the hell knows at this stage.
Well, it's all very close in the midfield. Whatever car the teams ran this week will differ from next week, and that car will differ from Melbourne. Which will differ to what is run in Europe. And so on. I believe we may see all teams scoring points this year, not only because of pure luck but from actual performance. On certain tracks, I believe any team can breach the top 10 in a normal race.
YAY MORE TESTING. Mercedes and Ferrari are currently lapping on softs. Bottas' best is 1m20.596s, Vettel is very close with a 1m20.653s. Next guy in line? Gasly. On a 1m20.973s. Oh how I'd love for the Honda to be a great engine this year.
From Bottas to Ericsson (P8) there's a 2 second gap but Ericsson was on the medium compound tyre when everyone in front of him used softs.
Stoffel Vandoorne's McLaren broke down. Again. Perhaps Honda never was the problem, McLaren was?
Right now, all teams are covered by just 1.6 seconds. Vettel has done a 1m20.396s on mediums, Stoffel Vandoorne a 1m21.946s on super softs. I'm looking forward to a decent midfield battle this year then.
(https://scontent-arn2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/28516625_1734590536607983_8721827330583059279_o.png?oh=19856ddbffc56c374d5012750cf62aa3&oe=5B008364)
That's fun.
Quote from: Chrill on March 06, 2018, 06:27:33 AM
Right now, all teams are covered by just 1.6 seconds. Vettel has done a 1m20.396s on mediums, Stoffel Vandoorne a 1m21.946s on super softs. I'm looking forward to a decent midfield battle this year then.
... and a cracking one at the front, me hopes. Desperate Dan & Mad Max in the mix, that's what we need.
McLaren broke down again today. Poor guys.
Some ?2* clip last week, battery fault yesterday... any idea what failed today?
*a two Pound clip.
Whatever it was, Boullier can assure you that it wasn't McLaren's fault.
It was an oil leak. Perhaps Petrobras is to blame?
(https://i.imgur.com/0wWd0nZ.png)
That Sauber lap time though. I'm relieved. Sure it's on ultra soft but so are the cars in front of him. Compare it to Perez on that same compound. So one lap pace looks to be getting better. Remains to be seen how long runs are, which is the important part.
Not to mention that Ferrari lap time. Absurd.
EDIT: Or that Haas lap time on supers? Huh.
No. Driver Team Best lap time Diff. Laps Tyres
1 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 1m17.182s - 188 Hyper softs
2 Kevin Magnussen Haas/Ferrari 1m18.360s 1.178s 153 Super Softs
3 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso/Honda 1m18.363s 1.181s 169 Hyper softs
4 Nico Hulkenberg Renault 1m18.675s 1.493s 79 Hyper softs
5 Carlos Sainz Renault 1m18.725s 1.543s 69 Hyper softs
6 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren/Renault 1m18.855s 1.673s 151 Hyper softs
7 Marcus Ericsson Sauber/Ferrari 1m19.244s 2.062s 148 Hyper softs
8 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1m19.296s 2.114s 84 Mediums
9 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes 1m19.532s 2.350s 97 Mediums
10 Robert Kubica Williams/Mercedes 1m19.629s 2.447s 73 Super Softs
11 Sergio Perez Force India/Mercedes 1m19.634s 2.452s 159 Hyper softs
12 Max Verstappen Red Bull/Renault 1m19.842s 2.660s 187 Soft
13 Lance Stroll Williams/Mercedes 1m20.262s 3.080s 67 Ultra softs
Right, let's sum this up now then.
1) Ferrari. Wow that's a lap time. One second faster than Ricciardo yesterday. What Ricciardo did yesterday was the fastest lap ever of this circuit. Vettel removed a full second.
2) Haas. With a lot of teams trying hypers for quali style runs, Haas edged ahead of all their midfield rivals. Mercedes and Red Bull never went for it, but he kept McLaren and Renault behind him. Well done.
3) Toro Rosso. Still super impressive, that Honda engine seems realiable and fast. And the Toro Rosso package looks strong.
How would I currently rank teams based on 7/8 days of testing?
1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
3. Red Bull
4. Haas
5. Toro Rosso
6. Renault
7. McLaren
8. Williams
9. Force India
10. Sauber
Very different to last week, and skewed by today of course, but really 4-10 is very close. Even comparing Haas to Sauber, there's only a 0.9 second gap between them. That's 7 teams within less than a second.
Mercedes showed on soft and medium tyres that they are definitely as good as Ferrari, perhaps even better. They haven't even bothered to run the ultra soft tyre, no push laps like the ones Vettel put in today. Red Bull also didn't bother today, but went real fast yesterday.
Also, Stroll appears weaker than Kubica. Who woulda guessed it? I saw a video of Kubica. He walks with a limp and his right arm is severely immobile. How he can drive an F1 car, let alone do so faster than three other guys today, simply staggers me.
You've got to expect team performance to be mainly an evolution of where we were at end of 2017, but hopefully with the odd surprise thrown in to keep us on our toes.
My current thinking:
1. Ferrari
2. Mercedes
3. Red Bull
4. McLaren
5. Renault
6. Force India
7. Toro Rosso
8. Haas
9. Williams
10. Sauber
Mercedes have long runs that imply they are close to a full second faster than their competitors. I think Ferrari stand little chance of keeping up this year.
Haas are reliable very fast, I doubt they are as far down as 8th. Their car looks very Ferrari this year, which can only mean they should be fast. Force India have looked appalling so far. I definitely rate them low, with Haas and Toro Rosso the most likely to spring surprises.
The McLaren is extremely unreliable, which is a worry to them. No more blaming Honda either.
Just a few teething issues for McLaren, but they should have most of them ironed out by Melbourne. Probably.
Okay, so Ferrari ahead of Merc is an ambitious call; in reality I'm hoping they'll have the best of the silver guys at certain tracks and not be a million miles away elsewhere - and that Red Bull will be within a few tenths. I will be surprised if Mercedes has unearthed enough extra speed in their car to find themselves nigh-on one second ahead on any length of run, that would be an unusual jump in performance so far into a period of rule stability.
I've had a change of heart with Haas & Williams: I'll put them both ahead of Toro Rosso. Although if I was ranking specifically for the Aussie GP I'd have to shunt most of the teams into new positions.