2021 Driver Speculation

[Chrill]

Wolff says "curveballs" delaying Hamilton's new contract

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/hamilton-contract-mercedes-curveballs-wolff/5189353/

Mercedes Formula 1 boss Toto Wolff says "curveballs" thrown at lawyers have delayed his team finalising a contract with Lewis Hamilton, but he has no doubts it will get sorted.

[Penfold]

I suppose he'll get round to signing one of these days, got about another 45 of them before pre-season testing.

[Chrill]

February now, no Lewis confirmation. By now, I'd say the likelihood of Lewis Hamilton racing for Mercedes in 2021 is down to... 75%?

[Penfold]

I'm more confident that he will, let's say 86.35%

[Chrill]

That's still a 13.65% risk Mercedes will be unable to sign him. Why would you round your number that much? Be more specific, as I was.

[Penfold]

I was going to do it to four decimal places but thought it would be overkill 

You know what, I really struggle to see Lewis walking away from that 8th title. So upon reflection, I'll amend my figure to 94.955%

[Chrill]

So with just a 5.055% risk of him disagreeing, why has he not yet signed a deal when the season ended almost two months ago?

[Penfold]

Money/terms of contract

[Chrill]

Yes. And if those hasn't been wrapped up during the season, or even for the almost two months since, why are they 95% likely to reach an agreement in time for the Bahraini tests on March 12?

[Penfold]

Because deadlines tend to concentrate minds and force a resolution

[Chrill]

Fair enough. Starting today, I will remove about one percentage point per day from my guess.

If, by March 1st, no announcement has arrived, we'll be down to 50% or so likelihood.

[Chrill]

Lewis Hamilton finally signs an extension with Mercedes, however it seems it is only for one year.
https://www.racefans.net/2021/02/08/hamiltons-new-mercedes-contract-finally-confirmed/

The deal includes "he and Mercedes will collaborate on a charitable foundation to promote diversity and inclusion across motorsport".

With that, the 2021 grid is complete. If indeed this is a simply 1-year deal, that implies he intends to retire after 2021. If it's a 1+1 or similar, we'll see. I could easily see him doing 3-4 more seasons, it all depends on how the grid shapes up in 2022 really and if Mercedes remain fully competitive.

[Matt]

If he leaves before the new car comes out...

I bought and watched all of the season review DVDs from 2003-19, and I have a few conclusions. One of which is that Hamilton has become overrated, his car has been just as dominant as Vettel's was during the RBR run and he hasn't had any teammate competition since Rosberg left. When Rosberg was there, he was just as much of an asshole as any other driver in that sort of position and did make some mistakes. Similarly, I think Rosberg has become underrated, to most people he's now just that guy who got lucky and beat Hamilton once. Bottas is overrated, he's fine but he puts up 1/10th the fight that Rosberg did. I think Vettel is a little underrated from a career perspective, but the last two seasons he has truly been not good at all.

Which is not to say that Hamilton isn't the best F1 driver ever. This is F1. It's basically impossible to properly analyze this, everyone in the conversation got most of their results in the best car at the time.

[Penfold]

Hamilton has certainly enjoyed a phenomenal run in cars capable of delivering championships.  If we include the upcoming season, I make it 10 out of his 15 years where he's had the machinery to realistically have a shot at the title; I'd put Schumacher at 10 out of 18 seasons, and Senna at just 4 out of 10 - would've been 5 from 11 but his 1994 was somewhat curtailed.  Trying to think of any other driver who's spent two thirds of his career in the best car.  Mind you, at least all of Hamilton's cars were legal, more than can be said for some of Schumacher's motors.

[Chrill]

It can be argued that Bottas has spent 5 of his 9 seasons in dominant machinery with no wins, or Massa for perhaps half his career.

The Sennas, Schumachers, and Hamiltons drive the best cars because they are the best drivers. In Sweden, a lot of people think Hamilton is mediocre at best.