2022 Driver Speculation

[Chrill]

Seriously, no speculations thread for 2022 yet?

Oh well.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team:
44. Lewis Hamilton (link)
63. George Russell (link)

Oracle Red Bull Racing:
1. Max Verstappen (link)
11. Sergio Perez (link)

Scuderia Ferrari:
16. Charles Leclerc (link)
55. Carlos Sainz (link)

McLaren F1 Team:
3. Daniel Ricciardo (link)
4. Lando Norris (link)

BWT Alpine F1 Team:
14. Fernando Alonso (link)
31. Esteban Ocon (link)

Scuderia AlphaTauri:
10. Pierre Gasly (link)
22. Yuki Tsunoda (link)

Aston Martin Aramco Cognizant F1 Team:
5. Sebastian Vettel (link)
18. Lance Stroll (link)

Williams Racing:
6. Nicolas Latifi (link)
23. Alexander Albon (link)

Alfa Romeo F1 Team Orlen:
24. Guanyu Zhou (link)
77. Valtteri Bottas (link)

Haas F1 Team:
20. Kevin Magnussen (link)
47. Mick Schumacher (link)



As for the first rumour of this topic:
Juri Vips of Red Bull admits that COVID hurt him bad in 2020, messing with his chances in Super Formula. With Tsunoda "jumping" Vips in the Red Bull queue, Vips acknowledges that even if he is successful in F2 this season there may not be an opportunity to join AlphaTauri.
https://www.motorsport.com/fia-f2/news/vips-red-bull-chance-2022-tsunoda/6202077/

[Penfold]

Truly outrageous, the next season will be on us in a mere 11 months....

[Chrill]

There we go. Added all the drivers, confirmed and speculated, with relevant links. We're potentially looking at another messy silly season this year, just like last year. With seats open at both top teams (and three of those four drivers in the top two teams with confirmed one-year deals for 2021), who knows what will happen?

Zak Brown is sure that Russell and Verstappen will form a new Mercedes lineup for 2022. Me? Nah. I think it will be Russell-Bottas or Hamilton-Bottas, and that the decision will come down simply to whether Lewis wants more F1 action after this year.

I'll also steal this picture from someone called u/fromanzo on Reddit, of which drivers are part of various F1 junior teams this year:



There's a Norwegian, a Swede, THREE Danes, but no Finns. No Finns! Luckily Kimi won't retire for another 6-7 years.

[Penfold]

At some point he will though, right?  Got to say, I'd love it if Kimi was still quick enough for F1 in his fifties

[Penfold]

I'd hope Merc (Toto really) had the balls to run Ham/Russ in '22 if Lewis wants to keeps racing, hasn't Bottas wasted that seat for long enough?

[Chrill]

hasn't Bottas wasted that seat for long enough?

Well, judging from the 2016 campaign, no. Hamilton has been solidly winning, and Bottas has caused headaches for Verstappen. That may change this season depending on whether Red Bull really are faster. Bottas is a solid wingman, although he won't admit it. He does not cause a fuss, he delivers solid P2s and P3s.

[Penfold]

Without the hefty car advantage of recent years I can't see Bottas troubling Max.  I'm thinking this season will be rather like 2018 for Val, only with Red Bull instead of Ferrari pushing him down the field.

[Chrill]

That could definitely be true. I think Red Bull have the upper hand on Hamilton too, for what it's worth. This season, Mercedes would definitely benefit from a Rosberg (or a Russell) in that second car.

[Matt]

George has done his part to make sure Bottas falls down the order... Not that Bottas was helping himself out much by running at the bottom of the top ten for no apparent reason.

[Chrill]

Russell was only able to bring Bottas down by fighting him for NINTH. Or was it P10 even? Valtteri should know better than to run that far down the order.

[Chrill]

A new round?

Lewis wants to race in 2022:
https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/56932825

Could Vettel be ousted for Hulkenberg? Probably not:
https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-news/hulkenberg-plays-down-his-chances-of-replacing-vettel-this-season/

Are these junior formula drivers bidding for a 2022 race seat?
https://www.racefans.net/2021/05/04/who-are-the-top-f1-juniors-bidding-for-a-grand-prix-debut-in-2022/

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team:
33. Max Verstappen (link)
44. Lewis Hamilton (link)
63. George Russell (link)
77. Valtteri Bottas (link)

Red Bull Racing Honda:
33. Max Verstappen (link)
11. Sergio Perez (link)
22. Yuki Tsunoda (link)
23. Alexander Albon (link)

McLaren F1 Team:
3. Daniel Ricciardo (link)
4. Lando Norris (link)

Scuderia Mission Winnow Ferrari:
16. Charles Leclerc (link)
55. Carlos Sainz (link)

Alpine F1 Team:
14. Fernando Alonso (link)
10. Pierre Gasly (link)
31. Esteban Ocon (link)
?. Christian Lundgaard (link)
?. Guanyu Zhou (link)
?. Oscar Piastri (link)

Scuderia AlphaTauri Honda:
10. Pierre Gasly (link)
22. Yuki Tsunoda (link)
23. Alexander Albon (link)
?. Jak Crawford (link)
?. Jehan Daruvala (link)
?. Jonny Edgar (link)
?. Jüri Vips (link)
?. Liam Lawson (link)

Aston Martin Cognizant F1 Team:
5. Sebastian Vettel (link)
18. Lance Stroll (link)
27. Nico Hülkenberg (link)

Alfa Romeo Racing Orlen:
7. Kimi Räikkönen (link)
99. Antonio Giovinazzi (link)
?. Callum Ilott (link)
?. Marcus Armstrong (link)
?. Robert Shwartzman (link)

Williams Racing:
6. Nicolas Latifi (link)
63. George Russell (link)
?. Frederik Vesti (link)

Uralkali Haas F1 Team:
9. Nikita Mazepin (link)
47. Mick Schumacher (link)

[Chrill]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/hamilton-wants-new-mercedes-f1-contract-agreed-by-summer-break/6506034/
Hamilton once again confirms his intention to remain in F1, and with Mercedes, for 2022.

[Matt]

I'm glad to see it. I want to see if he and Mercedes can win under different regulations. Especially since the new regulations should give a little more influence back to each driver's ability to race other cars.

[Chrill]

Especially since the new regulations should give a little more influence back to each driver's ability to race other cars.

Definitely with you on that. So far this year, I feel that Lewis is excelling but that is as much down to Mercedes as it is his own driving. He also did go off at Imola.

I'm not entirely sure how many hours of wind tunnel and development Mercedes lost by winning the 2020 season, in comparison to Williams. At least Ferrari, with their very poor 2020 showing, gets more development than most of the teams currently at the front.

1. Mercedes: 90%
2. Red Bull: 92.5%
3. McLaren: 95%
4. Aston Martin: 97.5%
5. Alpine: 100%
6. Ferrari: 102.5%
7. AlphaTauri: 105%
8. Alfa Romeo: 107.5%
9. Haas: 110%
10. Williams: 112.5%

So what does this actually mean in total hours? Well, Alpine in the middle will have 960 runs in the wind tunnel. So Mercedes will lose a not insignificant 96 of those (864 runs), whilst Ferrari will enjoy 984 runs. Williams, yes, will get a whopping 1080 runs. What that actually means in terms of development remains to be seen, efficiency as always is key.

[Chrill]

Wolff highlights Ocon and Russell, alongside Verstappen, as potential future replacements for Hamilton. The Hamilton boy is expected to sign a longer-term deal (I'd hazard a guess at a 2+1 contract) to stay with Mercedes, so this might belong more in the 2024 Driver Speculation thread. Or 2025.
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/verstappen-not-only-option-as-hamilton-successor-wolff/6507171/