Testing Times (Shiny new 2022 Edition)

[Penfold]

Getting in early with a thread to cover that unerringly accurate predictor of F1's future pecking order: pre-season testing!

Brand new design philosophy this year, and so of course the F1 bods have granted teams an incredibly generous 6 days of on-track shenanigans to get ready for racing.

Barcelona: 23 - 25 February
Bahrain: 11 - 13 March

So, seven weeks and counting....

[Chrill]

I'll get my pre-pre-season predictions in. These are based on:

1. Historical performance
2. Ability to develop the 2022 car, both financially and having the capacity
3. My perception of staff capabilities
4. Absolute randomness

So, let's do a top 10 of 2022:

10. Haas - Dallara simply don't have the knowhow to really push car development. Haas will score points for sure, all ten teams will this year, but they'll end last.
9. Alfa Romeo - The car is better and closer to the midfield, but Bottas can't overtake and ends up actually losing the points battle to Zhou. The car was 7th or 8th best, but the drivers not.
8. AlphaTauri - Their car wasn't AWESOME back in 2017, the last time new rules were introduced. On a tight budget, they will struggle to develop as strongly as the other midfield teams and that leaves them here.
7. McLaren - The honey moon is over. Doing so well in 2020 cost them in terms of development time, and comments from Norris about how difficult the car is to drive whilst others haven't really echoed those statements makes me worried McLaren drops back.
6. Williams - Albon and Latifi proves a brilliant duo, and they push Williams right back into the midfield with a surprisingly good car. No podiums this year, but solidly competing for positions 6-10 in most races.
5. Aston Martin - The team didn't work hard on the 2021 car, yet they are known to achieve much with little. What can they achieve with much? Not as much, apparently.
4. Alpine - Starts the season as maybe the second best team, Alonso even wins in Australia. They then drop back as the top 3 battle it out.
3. Red Bull - The season-long battle with Mercedes hurt them more than they thought, and the team can only secure 3 wins over the course of the 2022 season. Not enough to win championships.
2. Mercedes - Is this the beginning of the end? The car is clearly not fast enough to fight for the championship, only through Hamilton's anger is it still fighting for wins all season long.
1. Ferrari - Yes of course I'm wrong about this. But Ferrari sound so bullish about the 2022 season and their chances, and whispers making the rounds claim they (with Alpine) have found a loophole that will take others a few months to catch up to. That will be enough to crown Carlos Sainz world champion. Smooth operator!

2022 race wins?

Ferrari - 12 (7x Sainz: Baku, Montréal, Paul Ricard, Spa, Singapore, Suzuka, São Paulo | 5x Leclerc: Sakhir, Barcelona, Monaco, Monza, Mexico)
Mercedes - 7 (6x Hamilton: Jeddah, Imola, Silverstone, Spielberg, Texas, Abu Dhabi | 1x Russell: Sochi)
Red Bull - 3 (3x Verstappen: Miami, Zandvoort, Hungaroring)
Alpine - 1 (1x Alonso: Melbourne)

It'll be tight, but Sainz will win the season with one race to spare by victory in Brazil. Hamilton will be maybe 30 points behind him after Brazil, but will end the season on a high by securing victory in Abu Dhabi.

[Penfold]

Ferrari got their engines sorted by the end of last year, so 'just' be the twiddly bits of track where they lose out to the relentless machine that is Mercedes F1 and Red Bull with their in-house aero genius Adrian Newey.  Oh, and McLaren top four says my gut - at least this year's car has been designed specifically for the Mercedes powertrain.

[Chrill]

But I spent so much time calculating who wins what race! Don't introduce Norris and Ricciardo to that, please.

[Penfold]

Too late!  Besides, Sainz is being greedy with all those wins, he can let Norris have one

[Chrill]

Fine. Ferrari will struggle in France again so Norris wins there. Happy?

[Penfold]

Yep, that'll do me!

[Penfold]

Times from day one, not a good start for Alfa

1. Norris (McLaren) 1m19.568s, C4, 102 laps
2. Leclerc (Ferrari) 1m20.165s, C3, 80 laps
3. Sainz (Ferrari) 1m20.416s, C3, 73 laps
4. Russell (Mercedes) 1m20.784s, C3, 77 laps
5. Hamilton (Mercedes) 1m20.929s, C3, 50 laps
6. Vettel (Aston Martin) 1m21.276s, C3, 52 laps
7. Tsunoda (AlphaTauri) 1m21.638s, C3, 120 laps
8. Alonso (Alpine) 1m21.746s, C3, 146 laps
9. Verstappen (Red Bull) 1m22.246s, C2, 147 laps
10. Bottas (Alfa Romeo) 1m22.572s, C3, 23 laps
11. Albon (Williams) 1m22.760s, C3, 66 laps
12. Schumacher (Haas) 1m22.962s, C3, 23 laps
13. Stroll (Aston Martin) 1m23.327s, C3, 67 laps
14. Latifi (Williams) 1m23.379s, C3, 66 laps
15. Mazepin (Haas) 1m24.505s, C2, 20 laps
16. Kubica (Alfa Romeo) 1m25.909s, C3, 9 laps

[Chrill]

My pre-season bet is definitely confirmed, apart from McLaren. Brilliant. Carlos Sainz weltmeister.

Please read this with at least a touch of sarcasm.

[Penfold]

My default setting is sarcastic...

Day 2 times:

Leclerc, Ferrari, 1m19.689s, C3 tyre - 78 laps
Gasly, AlphaTauri, 1m19.918s, C4-146
Ricciardo, McLaren, 1m20.288s, C4-126
Russell, Mercedes, 1m20.537s, C3-65
Sainz, Ferrari, 1m20.546s, C3-71
Vettel, Aston Martin, 1m20.784s, C3-73
Perez, Red Bull, 1m21.430s, C3 - 78
Mazepin, Haas, 1m21.512s, C3-41
Albon, Williams, 1m21.531s, C3-47
Zhou, Alfa Romeo, 1m21.885s, C3-71
Latifi, Williams, 1m21.894s, C3-61
Stroll, Aston Martin, 1m21.920s, C3 - 55
Schumacher, Haas, 1m21.949s, C3-66
Ocon, Alpine, 1m22.164s, C3-124
Bottas, Alfa Romeo, 1m22.288s, C3-21
Hamilton, Mercedes, 1m22.562s, C2-40

[Chrill]

I know we should not read into testing times at all, but either Red Bull are absolutely not concerned whatsoever with chasing top speed, or they are struggling a little bit at least.

The "porpoising" effect, as in the cars [norris]moving up and down side to side like a rollercoaster[/norris], is clearly in effect for all teams. Getting on top of that fast could be a ticket to easy wins for the first few races while others figure it out.

[Penfold]

Day 3....

1. Hamilton (Mercedes) 1m19.138s, C5, 94 laps
2. Russell (Mercedes) 1m19.233s, C5, 66 laps
3. Perez (Red Bull) 1m19.556s, C4, 74 laps
4. Verstappen (Red Bull) 1m19.756s, C3, 59 laps
5. Vettel (Aston Martin) 1m19.824s, C5, 48 laps
6. Leclerc (Ferrari) 1m19.831s, C3, 44 laps
7. Sainz (Ferrari) 1m20.072s, C3, 92 laps
8. Albon (Williams) 1m20.318s, C4, 94 laps
9. Latifi (Williams) 1m20.699s, C4, 13 laps
10. Ricciardo (McLaren) 1m20.790s, C3, 86 laps
11. Norris (McLaren) 1m20.827s, C3, 52 laps
12. Alonso (Alpine) 1m21.242s, C3, 12 laps
13. Zhou (Alfa Romeo) 1m21.939s, C3, 41 laps
14. Gasly (AlphaTauri) 1m22.469s, C2, 40 laps
15. Mazepin (Haas) 1m26.229s, C3, 9 laps
16. Bottas (Alfa Romeo) 1m30.433s, I, 10 laps

[Chrill]

Biggest shakeup in history? Mercedes 1-2 with a Red Bull 3-4, then a Racing Point and some Ferraris. Hmm.

[Chrill]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/haas-confirms-fittipaldi-for-bahrain-test-race-seat-undecided/8778381/

Fittipaldi will test for Haas, but no word on whether he will also race for them this year.

[Chrill]

Testing all done, and it's pretty hard to pick out who's the favourite. Max lapped faster than anyone, but his closest rival was Schumacher. Surely Haas is not 2nd fastest, or are they?

I'll amend my pre-season ratings, and go like this:

1. Red Bull (+2 compared to my pre-season pre-test ratings)
2. Ferrari (-1)
3. Mercedes (-1) - The distance covered in Spain and Bahrain implies Mercedes are searching. With a lot of data to go through, I fully expect them to challenge for podiums from the start and potentially be unstoppable later in the season
4. McLaren (+3) - Surely not due to their performance in Bahrain, but perhaps in Spain where they seemed up there with Ferrari
5. AlphaTauri (+3)
6. Haas (+4) - Fast over one lap, but a lot of reliability issues
7. Alpine (-3)
8. Aston Martin (-3) - Slow but steady, ran a lot of laps but never fast enough
9. Alfa Romeo (same) - Perhaps fast, but struggling with reliability
10. Williams (-4) - The car looked incredibly difficult to drive, Latifi and Albon locked up in Turn 10 more than the other teams combined. Coupled with a lack of pace, they are last.