Junior Formula Racing

[Chrill]

Are you 12? Are you driving a Formula 3 car? Did you set a lap record with a Formula 4 car last year? Then your name is propobably Juju.

https://supergtworld.wordpress.com/2018/02/23/12-year-old-juju-noda-steals-the-show-at-okayama-tests/

This 12-year old girl tested a Dallara Formula 3 car earlier this year, by far the youngest driver driver to do so. She is the daughter of Hideki Noda, who entered three races for Larrousse in the 1994 F1 World Championship. Could she be the first girl to start a race in F1 since Lella Lombardi way back in the 70s?

Juju Noda, now 14, has made her European debut racing in Danish F4. How she did? Won from pole, set the fastest lap, and led every race.
https://formulascout.com/juju-noda-wins-on-danish-f4-debut-at-jyllandsringen/63330

Only a matter of time before she's picked up by Ferrari's or Red Bull's academy, no?

[Penfold]

Impressive stuff.  I imagine all the F1 academies will be keeping a close eye on her.

[Chrill]

She ended up 3rd in the second race, but was disqualified due to some tyre related shenanigans. That bumped her down the grid for the final race of the weekend. She fought back to the podium and finished 3rd there too.

[Chrill]

You want to know how bored I've been at work today? I'm compiling a list of pretty much every driver capable of reaching Formula 1 in the next 5 or so years (only including drivers in karting if they are attached to a junior development program run by an F1 team). The list also includes the most successful 2020 drivers in IndyCar, Formula E, WEC, and so on. The list is not complete, but it contains 161 names so far (ages ranging from the 43-year old Takuma Sato to the 11-year old Piotr Czaja of the Sauber junior program). The list includes 7 women and 154 men. We have drivers from a total of 37 different countries including less succesful motorsport nations like Romania, Jamaica, Paraguay, and Liechtenstein.

I will use this list to predict the lineups in future seasons of F1!

[Chrill]

This was the easy part. Tsunoda is 203 because he finished 3rd in Formula 2. (see attached)

0-99: Formula 1 numbers
100-200: Not in use
201-300: Formula 2 numbers
301-330: FIA Formula 3
331-350: W Series
351-380: Formula Renault Eurocup
381-400: Formula Regional European
401-420: Formula 4 Denmark
421-440: Formula 4 Germany (ADAC)
441-460: Toyota Racing Series
461-480: Formula 4 Italy
501-520: Formula E
521-540: IndyCar
541-560: FIA WEC
560-580: Super Formula
601-up: Karting, National GT series

[Chrill]

I spent some time on 2022 also. I am assuming Kimi will finally retire by the end of 2021, so will not be available for 2021. I am also assuming Ferrari will opt to let Giovinazzi go, forcing Alfa Romeo to pick a brand new driver pairing. They don't want to go into 2022 blind, so they go for a very talented yet available boy by the name of Pierre Gasly. I also predict that Mercedes will drop Bottas, and that the Finn will not bring enough funding to find a seat at a team further down the grid. With the midfield remaining with their pairings for 2022 (Alpine, McLaren, Aston Martin, Ferrari all keeping their drivers), there is no room and Bottas is forced into a sabbatical. Albon is finally dropped at Red Bull for Tsunoda (who'll drive a great debut season in 2021), and once again lacks the funding to join a team further down the grid.

Mercedes-AMG Petronas F1 Team:
44. Lewis Hamilton
63. George Russell

Red Bull Racing:
33. Max Verstappen
203. Yuki Tsunoda

McLaren F1 Team:
3. Daniel Ricciardo
4. Lando Norris

Aston Martin F1 Team:
5. Sebastian Vettel
18. Lance Stroll

Alpine F1 Team:
14. Fernando Alonso
31. Esteban Ocon

Scuderia Ferrari Mission Winnow:
16. Charles Leclerc
55. Carlos Sainz

Scuderia AlphaTauri Honda:
216. Jüri Vips
305. Liam Lawson

Alfa Romeo Racing ORLEN:
10. Pierre Gasly
202. Callum Ilott

Haas F1 Team:
9. Nikita Mazepin
47. Mick Schumacher

Williams Racing:
6. Nicolas Latifi
11. Sergio Pérez

So, that means three rookies for 2022. One Ferrari-sponsored at Alfa Romeo, and Red Bull wipes their rookie team entirely. I could see Albon slotting back in together with Vips, though. Or Lawson, if his 2021 F2 season is excellent.

I'll keep doing year by year, when bored, and hopefully I'll have an absolutely absurd 2028 grid soon enough.

[Matt]

Many reputable rumors say Perez will be at Red Bull next year, which already puts a hole in your projections. Personally, I don't see RBR/AT running three drivers with a combined one year of experience, unless they've learned nothing.

[Chrill]

Personally, I don't see RBR/AT running three drivers with a combined one year of experience, unless they've learned nothing.

You assume they learn from their mistakes. What does Kvyat's stint at Red Bull, Gasly's stint at Red Bull, and Albon's stint at Red Bull tell you?

I of course would prefer Perez, but I think Albon's performance at Abu Dhabi may just be enough to keep him onboard.

[Penfold]

Which is nuts, this one should've been a Red Bull 1-2 but for much of the race Albon was a good 0.5s/lap slower than Max.  If RB harbours any ambition of taking the '21 Constructors' Championship, they need someone to back up Verstappen; they can't have a guy scoring at half the rate of Max and ending up equal sixth in the standings.

[Penfold]

Chrill, it was clearly a very slow work day!

[Chrill]

It was that, indeed. I haven't had a slow work day in a few months so I feel like I deserved it.

[Chrill]

Stupid Perez got a contract, so I guess I will revisit this soon, and then work my way forward!

[Penfold]

... or for added difficulty start in 2030 and work your way backwards!  Hmm, no, maybe not.

[Chrill]

That seems counter-intuitive.

Now help me out here. F1 drivers either get forced out, or choose to retire between 35-40. Some go into the early 40s, such as Alonso and Kimi. We don't expect Lewis or Sebastian to be racing sometime around 2026-2027 do we. However, someone like Ricciardo or Perez may do his last season then.

By 2030, realistically only these could still be in F1:
Yuki Tsunoda (30 years)
Lando Norris (31)
George Russell (32)
Lance Stroll (32)
Charles Leclerc (33)
Max Verstappen (33)
Esteban Ocon (34)
Pierre Gasly (34)
Alexander Albon (34)

And maybe:
Nicholas Latifi (35)
Carlos Sainz (36)
Antonio Giovinazzi (37)

Vettel would be 43 by then, Ricciardo would be 41, Perez 40. Kimi would be 51.

[Penfold]

Oh God, I hope Stroll, Latifi, and Giovinazzi aren't in F1 ten years down the line!

Like you, I can picture Perez or Ricciardo hanging around for a number of years if the right seats are available, well into the late 2020s doesn't seem ridiculous.